Video Technology 2020 – The Cloud

The “cloud” is merely a collection of physical data centers in multiple locations around the world – not much different than a small storage center you might have. Of course, they employ more advanced systems for power, redundancy, and security than you do. When you work with one of the companies marketing cloud-based editing or a review-and-approval service, like Frame.io or Wipster, they provide the user-facing interface, but are actually renting storage space from one of the big three cloud providers – Google, Amazon, or Microsoft.

There are three reasons that I’m skeptical about ubiquitous, cloud-based editing (with media at native resolutions) in the short term: upload speeds, cost, and security.

Speed

5G (fifth generation wireless) is the technology predicted to offer adequate speeds and low latency for native 4K (and higher) media. While 5G will be a great advancement for many things, it’s a short distance signal requiring more transmission spots than current wireless technology. Full coverage in most metro areas, let alone widespread geographical coverage worldwide, will take many years to fully deploy. Other than potential camera-to-cloud uploads of proxy media in the field, 5G won’t soon be the killer solution. Current technology still dictates that if you want the fastest possible upload speeds for large amounts of data, then you have to tap as close as possible to the internet’s backbone.

Cost

Cloud storage is cheap, but extensive upload and download times aren’t. Unfortunately modern video resolutions also result in huge amounts of data generated on every shoot. Uploading native 4K media for a week-long production is considerably more expensive than FedEx and overnight charges to ship drives. What about long term storage? Let’s say that all of your native media is in the cloud and you pay according to a monthly or annual subscription plan. But what if you want to stop? That media will have to be downloaded and stored locally, which will incur data rate charges, as well as your time to download everything.

Security

Think these sites are unequivocally secure? Look at any data hack at a major company. Security is such a concern in our business that most major movie studios won’t let their editors connect the computers to the internet. Many make these editors check their cell phones at the door. No matter how secure, it’s going to be a hard sell, except for limited slices of the production, such as cloud-based VFX rendering.

I do believe 2020 will be a year in which many will take advantage of some modes of long distance, cloud-based edit services using low-res proxy media. Increasingly some services will be used to move dailies and deliverables around the globe via the cloud. But that’s a big difference from cloud-based editing becoming the norm. One edit scenario many will experiment with is to store the edit project files in the cloud, but with the media mirrored locally at each edit site. This way only the lightweight files used for edit collaboration need be moved over the internet. Think of this as Google Docs for editing. Adobe already offers a version of this, but I suspect you’ll see others, including solutions for Final Cut Pro X. So while true cloud-based editing is not a near-term solution, bits and pieces will become increasingly commonplace.

Originally written for Creative Planet Network.

©2020 Oliver Peters

Video Technology 2020 – Apple and the PC Landscape

Apple enjoys a small fraction of the total computer market, yet has an oversized influence on video production and post. Look anywhere in our business and you’ll see a high percentage of Apple Mac computers and laptops in use by producers, DITs, editors, mixers, and colorists. This has influenced the development and deployment of certain technologies, such as optimization for Metal, Thunderbolt i/o, ProRes codecs, and more. This may irritate Windows users, but it’s something companies like Avid, Adobe, and others cannot ignore. Apple deprecates OpenGL, OpenCL, and CUDA in favor of Metal, and so, developers of software for Apple computers will follow suit so that their Mac-based customers enjoy a good experience.

Going into 2020, Apple is offering a better line-up of professional Mac products than it has in years. MacBook Pro laptops, iMacs and iMac Pros, and the new Mac Pro are clearly targeted at the professional customer. Add to this the Pro Display XDR and authorized third-party products available through Apple, like LumaForge Jellyfish storageBlackmagic and Sonnet eGPUs. Clearly Apple intends to offer an end-to-end hardware and software ecosystem designed to appeal to the pro video customer.

Apple’s prices can be a turn-off for some. Similar investments in a PC – especially custom configurations – may yield better performance in certain applications. Nevertheless, most former and present owners of Mac Pro “cheese grater” towers feel like they got their money’s worth and will at least have interest in the new Mac Pro. Same for MacBook Pro owners. So while these new machines may not move the needle for the larger consumer computer market, it will definitely keep current Mac users in the fold and prevent migration to Windows or Linux PCs. It also reinforces Apple’s interest in the professional market – not just video, but also animation, design, audio, science, and engineering.

The unknown will be the impact of Apple’s new Afterburner card for the Mac Pro. While accelerator cards have been offered by various manufacturers in the past, recent computing developments have focused on processor core counts and GPU technology. The Apple Afterburner is the first introduction for Apple of a new FPGA-based (programmable ASIC) hardware accelerator card. Designed for transcoding, it promises to increase stream counts with 4K and 8K raw and standard codecs in the Mac Pro. Once it’s out in the wild, we will have a better idea of who supports it (beyond Apple’s own software) and its real-world performance.

As Apple goes, so goes the rest of the industry. How will the PC world counter this? Will we see similar cards from HP or Dell? Or will NVIDIA respond with similar results using their GPUs? That’s unknown right now, but my guess is that it will take at least this next year for the rest of the world to respond with competing solutions.

Originally written for Creative Planet Network.

©2020 Oliver Peters

Video Technology 2020 – Editing Software

Four editing applications dominate the professional market: Adobe Premiere Pro, Apple Final Cut Pro X, Avid Media Composer, and Blackmagic Design DaVinci Resolve. Established facilities are still heavy Avid users, with Adobe being the up-and-coming choice. This doesn’t mean that Final Cut Pro X lost out. Going into 2020, Apple can tout FCPX as the best-selling version of its professional editing tool. It most likely has three million users after nearly nine years on the market. While pro editors in the US are often reluctant to adopt FCPX, this innovative application has earned wider acceptance in the broader international market.

The three “A”s have been battling for editing market share, but the wild card is Blackmagic Design’s DaVinci Resolve. It started as a high-end color correction application, but through Blackmagic’s acquisitions and fast development pace, Resolve is becoming an all-in-one application rivaling Autodesk Smoke or Avid DS. Recent versions bring enhanced creative editing tools, making it possible to edit, mix, composite, grade, and deliver entirely from Resolve. No need to roundtrip with other applications. Blackmagic is so dedicated to Resolve as an editor that they introduced a special editor keyboard.

Is Resolve attractive enough to sway editors to shift away from other tools? The answer for most in 2020 will still be “no.” Experienced editors have made their choice and all of the current options are quite good. However, Resolve does make the most sense for new users with no prior allegiances. The caveat is advanced finishing. Users may edit in an editing application, but then roundtrip to Resolve and back for grading. Unfortunately these roundtrips can be problematic. So I do think that many will opt to cut creatively in their NLE of choice, but then send to Resolve for the final grade, mix, and VFX work. Expect to see Resolve’s finishing footprint expand in 2020.

Two challenges confront these companies in 2020: multi-user collaboration and high dynamic range (HDR) delivery. Collaboration is an Avid strength, but not so for the other three. Blackmagic and Adobe have an approach to project sharing, but still not what Avid users have come to expect. Apple offers nothing directly, but there are some third-party workarounds. Expect 2020 to yield collaboration improvements for Final Cut Pro X and Premiere Pro.

HDR is a more complex situation requiring specialized hardware for proper monitoring. There simply is no way to accurately view HDR on any computer display. All of these companies are developing software pipelines to deal with HDR, but in 2020, HDR delivery will still require specific hardware that will remain the domain of dedicated color correction facilities.

Finally, as with cameras, AI will become an increasing aspect of post hardware. You already see that in Apple’s shape recognition within FCPX (automatic sorting of wides and close-ups) or Adobe Sensei for content replacement and automatic music editing. Expect to see more of these features introduced in coming software versions.

Originally written for Creative Planet Network.

©2020 Oliver Peters

Video Technology 2020 – Cameras

Video acquisition drives the rest of the production and post industry. These are the developments to watch in camera technologies during 2020: resolution, raw codecs, and mobile filmmaking.

Resolution

Striving for larger resolutions has been the default camera manufacturer mode since the shift to single-sensor technology. HD (1920×1080) was abandoned long ago with a bigger resolution just around the corner each year. Currently 16K is the Holy Grail, although broadcast or streaming distribution platforms don’t come close. While 16K may be aspirational, sensor manufacturers have settled on 6K and/or 8K as the preferred target resolutions beyond 4K/UHD. Bayer pattern sensors used in many cameras benefit from oversampling, meaning the 6K or 8K images yield better results when downsampled to 4K than a native 4K sensor. Look for most high-end cameras to use an approach based on this premise.

Camera raw codecs

Camera raw recording was used before RED Digital Cinema, but RED brought raw codecs for movie files into mainstream production. Camera raw codecs are generally proprietary to specific companies, even though they may be widely and openly distributed. 2020 should bring the shakeout between the new raw codecs introduced by Apple and Blackmagic Design. Apple ProRes Raw is not tied to any specific brand of camera, but so far has only been enabled on Atomos recorders and some DJI cameras. Expect that to change in 2020, with additional manufacturers signing up to natively record ProRes Raw in-camera. Naturally this requires support from more than just Final Cut Pro X. Currently Blackmagic Raw enjoys wider post support, however, I don’t see it becoming dominant unless Blackmagic cameras gain a wider market share. Their price is right with plenty of happy customers, but Blackmagic cameras still don’t have the brand appeal of Sony, Panasonic, RED, Canon, or ARRI.

Mobile filmmaking

The Apple iPhone and small format factor cameras, like the DJI Osmo Pocket, have revolutionized video acquisition. The quality achieved in these cameras rivals many high-end production cameras, but with a considerably lighter footprint. The form factor and ease of production – coupled with built-in stabilization, gimbals, and camera apps like FiLMiC Pro and Mavis – enable new production styles and story concepts that would otherwise not be possible or would be cost-prohibitive using traditional methods. One only has to look at how drones have become the dominant form of aerial photography over manned helicopters and just think how similar technology will impact other modes of production. 

Newer technologies, like smart phone cameras, are software-based devices. They will be first to deploy machine learning and AI as a way to enhance the image before those same technologies come to traditional production cameras. Some computational features, like deep or shallow focus, bokeh effects, etc. already exist for the still camera within these phones. But imagine the possibilities of applying AI-based image profiles to your movie images, such as day-for-night or hyper-real photographic-style HDR looks. So while the purist will opt for a Sony or ARRI, others will take advantage of these new features that are available in the palm of their hand.

Originally written for Creative Planet Network.

©2020 Oliver Peters